The White House believes the U.S. and Iran are approaching a framework agreement to end the war

By Barak Ravid

President Trump posted on his social media that if the Iranians won’t agree to his proposal "the bombing starts, and it wll be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before". The president also wrote that "Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at the end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be open to all, including Iran".

Earlier today we reported that the White House believes it is nearing an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding that would end the war and establish a framework for detailed negotiations on the nuclear program and other issues, according to two senior U.S. officials and two additional sources who were briefed on the matter.

The Big Picture

• The United States expects to receive Iran's response within the next 48 hours on several key points in the draft framework agreement. Nothing has yet been finalized, but the sources said the sides are at the closest point to an agreement since the war began.
• Among other clauses, the agreement will include an Iranian commitment to freeze uranium enrichment, U.S. agreement to remove its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides will remove restrictions on passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
• Many of the conditions detailed in the memorandum will depend on a final agreement being reached, leaving open the possibility of renewed war or a prolonged interim situation in which the active war has stopped but nothing has actually been resolved.

Reality Check

• The White House believes Iran's leadership is divided and that it may be difficult to forge consensus among the various factions. Some senior administration officials remain skeptical about the possibility of achieving even an initial agreement.
• At several points during previous rounds of negotiations and during the current war, American officials expressed optimism about the chances of reaching an agreement, but so far they have failed to achieve one.
• Nevertheless, the two senior American officials said that President Trump's decision to pull back from the operation he recently announced in the Strait of Hormuz and to avoid collapsing the fragile ceasefire was based on the progress in the talks.

Behind the Scenes

• The memorandum of understanding is one page long and contains 14 clauses. Negotiations over it are being conducted between Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several senior Iranian officials, both directly and through intermediaries.
• In its current form, the memorandum would declare an end to the war across the entire region and the beginning of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, limit Iran’s nuclear program, and lift U.S. sanctions.
• These negotiations could take place in Islamabad or Geneva, according to two sources.
• Iran's restrictions on shipping through the strait and the American naval blockade will be gradually removed during that 30-day period, according to a senior U.S. official.
• If the negotiations collapse, American forces will be able to reinstate the blockade or resume military action, the senior official claimed.

Focus

• The duration of the uranium enrichment freeze is still under negotiation. Three sources said the freeze will be for at least 12 years, and one source estimated that the final outcome of the negotiations will be 15 years. Iran originally proposed a five-year freeze, while the U.S. demanded, and still demands, a 20-year freeze.
• The U.S. wants to include a clause in the agreement stating that any Iranian violation regarding uranium enrichment will extend the freeze period, the source said. After the freeze period ends, Iran will be allowed to enrich uranium to a low level of 3.67% but will not be allowed to stockpile the enriched material.
• Iran would commit in the memorandum never to attempt to obtain nuclear weapons or carry out activities related to their development. According to a U.S. official, the parties are also discussing a clause under which Iran would pledge not to operate underground nuclear facilities.
• Iran would also commit to an enhanced monitoring regime, including surprise inspections by UN inspectors, according to the U.S. official.
• The U.S. will commit as part of the memorandum of understanding to a gradual removal of the sanctions imposed on Iran and a gradual release of tens of billions of dollars in Iranian funds frozen around the world.

Between the Lines

• Two knowledgeable sources also claimed that Iran will agree to ship its highly enriched uranium out of the country - an issue that is a top priority for the U.S. and that Tehran has so far rejected.
• One source said that an option being discussed is to transfer the enriched material to the United States.

  What They Are Saying

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio said yesterday that "We don't have to have the actual agreement written out in one day".
• "This is highly complex and highly technical. But we have to have a diplomatic solution that is very clear about the topics that they are willing to negotiate on and the extent and the concessions they are willing to make at the front end in order to make those talks worthwhile", he added.
• However, Rubio also called some of Iran's senior leaders "insane in the brain" and said it is unclear whether they will make a deal.