The EU Move Stalled? A Senior European Source Tells N12: "Getting Closer to Sanctions on Settlers"

By Tomer Almagor | N12

New sanctions against settlers and against the settlements are expected to pass in the European Union in the near future, a senior European source familiar with the details told N12 today (Sunday), and this is also reflected in a series of public statements by senior EU officials. The measures come after an attempt to cancel the Association Agreement between Israel and the European Union was blocked last week.

"It seems increasingly likely that sanctions against the settlements will be imposed in the near future, now that the Hungarian veto has fallen and there is a certain shift in mood on the continent. Europe is tired of seeing what is happening in the West Bank and wants to send a certain message to Israel", the European source told N12. According to the source, beyond that, no additional measures against Israel are expected to pass. The same source warned against the ongoing deterioration between Israel and "its allies in Europe".

The two measures on the table:

• Sanctions on violent settlers and their organizations
• A ban on importing products from the settlements into the European Union

Currently, two sanctions packages with a real chance of passing against the settlements are being discussed in the European Union. These packages come after Israel, through diplomatic efforts and with the help of Italy and Germany, managed to block last week the most dramatic step — a total cancellation of the Association Agreement that defines relations with the European Union.

The first sanctions package being discussed is the imposition of sanctions on violent settlers and their organizations, against whom legal evidence has been gathered. Dr. Maya Sion-Tzidkiyahu, director of the Israel-Europe Relations Program at the Mitvim Institute and a lecturer at the Europe Forum at the Hebrew University, calls this package "the lowest step",and estimates: "These sanctions are going to happen, it's only a question of when". French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot said the step could be adopted "within days".

"The European Union has already prepared this third package; it has been stuck in Brussels for over half a year because of Hungary. EU Foreign Policy Chief Kaja Kallas said that 26 countries have already agreed - meaning all of them except Hungary. The incoming Hungarian Prime Minister Magyar has no reason to remain isolated and block this", Sion-Tzidkiyahu explains. The European Union has already imposed sanctions on violent settlers over the past two years, and the current step would expand the list of settlers subject to EU sanctions.

The second step, promoted by Sweden and France, is a ban on importing products from the settlements into the European Union. This is a dramatic step, and its chances of passing are real but not guaranteed. Sion-Tzidkiyahu explains that from an economic standpoint, imports from the settlements are completely negligible for both Israel and the European Union, but that the step is declarative and is expected to hurt some businesses in the settlements.

In terms of the timeline, the next Foreign Affairs Council meeting is on May 11, with a high probability of it taking place after the change of government in Hungary. Therefore, Shi'on-Tzidkiyahu estimates, there is a real chance that at least one of the mentioned sanctions will pass as early as next month.

Israel's Coalition Crumbling

Over the past two and a half years, the cornerstones of the wall protecting Israel from diplomatic measures in the European Union consisted of Germany, Italy, the Czech Republic, and Hungary. But in recent months, against the backdrop of surging violence by extremist settlers, the expansion of construction in Judea and Samaria, the rhetoric of government ministers regarding the future of the area, and public opinion hostile to Israel, that wall has been steadily crumbling.

In Hungary - Israel's most stable ally in the Union- Viktor Orbán's government suffered a crushing defeat. In his place, Péter Magyar will rise to power at the beginning of next month, having made clear that he will try to move closer to the European Union and will not grant Israel the "automatic veto" it had grown accustomed to under Orbán.

Over the past month, Italy also signaled that it is distancing itself from Jerusalem, and the country's foreign minister said last week that Rome supports restrictions on imports from Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Both countries, alongside Germany and the Czech Republic, are still allies of Israel and stand by its side in the diplomatic arena - but not as sweepingly as before, which makes Israel's diplomatic efforts to prevent further measures more difficult.